Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive

Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive

The simulations of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) strengthen previous assessments of a substantial role of anthropogenic emissions in driving precipitation changes in the Sahel, the semi-arid region at the southern edge of the Sahara. Historical simulations can capture the magnitude of the centennial Sahel drying over the span of the 20th century and confirm that anthr...

Rainfall Estimation in the Sahel: What Is the Ground Truth?

Areal rainfall estimation from ground sensors is essential as a direct input to various hydrometeorological models or as a validation of remote sensing estimates. More critical than the estimation itself is the assessment of the uncertainty associated with it. In tropical regions knowledge on this topic is especially scarce due to a lack of appropriate data. It is proposed here to assess standa...

Rainfall variability and vegetation dynamics in the Mauritanian Sahel

To evaluate the state of ecosystems in Mauritania, rainfall time series and a GIMMSNDVI (global inventory modeling and mapping study-normalized difference vegetation index) data set were used for analysis of rainfall and NDVI trends and their relationships in different ecological zones. Linear regression analysis and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test were applied to detect NDVI and rainfall ...

On the decadal scale correlation between African dust and Sahel rainfall: The role of Saharan heat low–forced winds

A large body of work has shown that year-to-year variations in North African dust emission are inversely proportional to previous-year monsoon rainfall in the Sahel, implying that African dust emission is highly sensitive to vegetation changes in this narrow transitional zone. However, such a theory is not supported by field observations or modeling studies, as both suggest that interannual var...

Trends in Rainfall Extremes